Holy Roman Empire - Chapter 162

Chapter 162: Chapter 49, Strategic Deception

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London

Since the start of the European arms race, the British Government had been paying close attention, keenly aware of the movements of other nations.

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Foreign Minister Palmerston said in an unbroken stream, “Based on the intelligence we’ve collected, the Austrian Government’s armament expansion is likely aimed at the Ottoman Empire; our plan to divert trouble eastward has been successful.

However, a change has occurred, the Austrian Government might have made a compromise with the Russians. Provoking conflict between Russia and Austria won’t be possible in the short term.

But the more conflicts of interest arise, even the best relationships can shatter. From the moment Austria stepped onto the Balkan Peninsula, the collapse of the Russian-Austrian Alliance was destined…”

Prime Minister John Russell furrowed his brow in question, “Mr. Palmerston, I trust your judgment that the Russian-Austrian Alliance will break down sooner or later. It could be in three years, five years, but certainly not now.

Before their common enemy — the Ottoman Empire falls, both Russia and Austria can still cooperate closely.

The seeds of hatred were sown hundreds of years ago, neither the Russians nor the Austrians want the Ottoman Empire to stand.

Beyond hatred, there’s an even more tempting interest. The Russians have their eyes on the Black Sea Strait, while the Austrians covet the Danube Basin.

The Ottoman Empire is too weak, targeted by two robbers. Yet, we can’t allow them to fall now.

It doesn’t matter so much if the Austrians have designs on the Danube Basin, but once the Black Sea Strait falls into Russian hands, our loss would be significant.

I don’t believe that a Constantinople alone could satisfy the Tsarist Government’s appetite. Having suppressed their desires for so many years, their release now will surely be earth-shattering.

Once the Ottoman Empire collapses, the Austrians might at most annex half of the Balkan Peninsula, while the Russians would occupy the lands along the Black Sea Strait.

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Then not only will our interests in the Ottoman Empire be at risk, even our stakes in the Mediterranean would be greatly affected, extending threats to South Africa and India due to the Russians.”

This is the crux of the problem; the British need the Ottoman Empire to bar the Russians. Nobody wants the Russians as neighbors, John Bull included.

If the Russians devour the Ottoman Empire and take control of this center stretching across Asia, Europe, and Africa, the situation will become utterly uncontrollable.

Palmerston, with a somber face, explained, “Prime Minister, the situation isn’t that bad yet. No European country wants to see the Russians grow stronger; this is our opportunity.

Whether Austria and Russia have reached an agreement and where their bottom lines lie remains uncertain.

However, one thing is sure, the Austrians equally don’t want the Russians to grow stronger. As old neighbors, they no doubt feel the threat from Russia more acutely.

Therefore, in the upcoming great war that is about to erupt, they will most likely take advantage but sit back and watch, letting the Ottomans get beaten. It’s not in their interest to see the Ottoman Empire crushed.

The Ottoman Empire is not weak; as long as they can clearly discern their primary and secondary enemies and focus on defending against the Russian onslaught, they should be able to hold on for quite some time with our support.

During this period, we could ally with France, Prussia, Spain, and other European nations to intervene in this war.”

This explanation was not entirely satisfying; judging from the current situation, the diplomatic policy previously adopted by the London Government had failed.

Luring Austria to the Balkan Peninsula was not wrong, but the irrational Russian bear seemed ready for a violent upset, didn’t it?

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Look at the time the Russians had prepared for war, and it’s clear that this conflict is not going to be trifling. Together with Austria, looking to gain an advantage, the Ottoman Empire has an infinitesimally small chance of resisting without external intervention.

The British had long known that a Russo-Turkish war was imminent, and they weren’t the only ones; all European nations were mentally prepared for it.

The friendly matches between the Russians and the Ottomans had already taken place many times, with everyone familiar with the pattern; basically, once a generation had grown, a match would be held.

This kind of friendly match isn’t always a full-fledged decisive battle. Often, it’s just a localized war, where a trivial pretext could lead to combat, followed by a truce after sufficient fighting.

This could be discerned from their preparation times; in general, the more comprehensive the preparation, the more intense the war.

Since the latter half of 1849, the Russians had been preparing, and since there’s been no sign of them launching an attack, the scale of this war was imaginable.

Against such a backdrop, drawing Austria into the Balkan Peninsula naturally exacerbated the chaos. If there were Russian-Ottoman conflict, it’d be one thing, but if Russia and Austria joined forces, not even God could save the Ottoman Empire.

Of course, Palmerston was troubled; had he foreseen this situation, he would have refrained from meddling with the Kingdom of Sardinia and let Austria get mired in the Italian quagmire.

The current scenario would be much better then, with an Austria lacking the energy to expand abroad, surely leading the charge against Russian expansion.

This was an inevitable result; if Austria could not gain advantages, Franz would also oppose the Russians’ continued expansion of power.

Not because of jealousy, but because of national strategic needs. Everyone understands the principle that one’s gain is another’s loss; if the Russians became stronger, it naturally meant Austria’s relative decline.

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After some thought, John Russell said, “The Foreign Office can start taking action now, in case Russia and Austria join forces against the Ottoman Empire, they won’t last long.”

At this time, the British were not prepared to plunge into combat shirtless. With their pocket-sized army, it wouldn’t take long before the war would consume them.

The key issue was that the French, the leading fighters, were not yet in place, and Napoleon III had not yet restored his position, while the parliament and president were still battling.

The severely factionalized French Government lacked influence internationally. Commitments made by the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs were extremely difficult to fulfill.

Paris

The changing international situation was a disaster for many, but for Louis-Napoleon-Bonaparte, it was an outright opportunity.

The British needed a stable French Government to be effective in the upcoming Russian-Turkish war and to curb the ambitions of the Russians.

At this juncture, what better choice did they have besides supporting him?

Surely they couldn’t support the Parliamentary faction; they were nowhere as efficient as a dictator.

The restoration plan had already been conceived within the Bonapartist faction; they only needed the right opportunity to launch it.

As for Austria’s current issue of expanding its army and preparing for war, like the British, Louis-Napoleon-Bonaparte also believed Austria was eyeing the Balkan Peninsula.

In order to induce strategic miscalculations by other countries, the Austrian Government didn’t just talk the talk without walking the walk.

Sending spies to the Balkan Peninsula who got caught by the Ottoman Empire was merely a trivial trick. Stationing troops at the border with the Ottoman Empire was just routine practice.

The Austrian public opinion was also stirring up old grudges against the Ottoman Empire. The military’s Balkan strategy was discussed every now and then.

If you didn’t know Austria was preparing to take revenge on the Ottomans, you certainly weren’t Austrian.

Various strategic materials were also continuously transported to Transylvania for storage, as if Austria was just waiting for an excuse to send troops to the Danube Basin.

To deceive others, one must first deceive oneself, a concept that Franz understood well; if his own people believed it, why wouldn’t the enemy?

Apart from the members of the Austrian Cabinet, only a few high-ranking military officers knew the Government’s true intention; the vast majority of Austrians believed their Government was about to go to war with the Ottoman Empire.

Many official media outlets were even analytically discussing how the Russo-Turkish war was about to erupt and that Austria just needed to pick up the spoils, without the need to pay a high price to occupy the Danube Basin.

All these actions naturally led both England and France to believe that Austria was about to make a move on the Balkan Peninsula.

Meanwhile, the westward expansion plan was completely obscured. The only noticeable move was the sudden acceleration of domestic railway construction.

Even the railways being built under Bavarian supervision saw an increase in social enthusiasts providing all sorts of conveniences.

Many people were even urging the Royal Bavarian Railway Company to speed up, not to delay their money-making opportunities.

Austria’s strategic deception plan not only fooled England and France but also confused the Prussians. Once it was determined that Austria’s target was the Balkan Peninsula, Frederick William IV could only look on with envy, jealousy, and hatred, then attend to his own affairs.

There was no way for them; if Russia and Austria moved against the Ottoman Empire, no matter how envious they were, they couldn’t possibly rush over to share in the spoils.

Geopolitics dictated that the Ottoman Empire’s interests had nothing to do with the Kingdom of Prussia. Given that, the Austrians were free to expand their military; since it didn’t concern their interests, the Kingdom of Prussia naturally didn’t need to follow suit.

Not only were several major powers deceived, but even the Swiss, who had been apprehensive for a long time, breathed a sigh of relief upon confirming that the Austrians were not targeting them. The fate of the Ottomans was none of their concern.

Under media promotion, the news that Russia and Austria were ready to seek revenge on the Ottoman Empire became common knowledge.

It was none of their concern, so they stayed aloof. The European public transformed into onlookers, simply waiting for the drama to unfold.